Official Kickoff: December 8th

End Date: January 5th

Prize Pool: 10,000 USDe

Welcome to the Sapience x Eliza OS Agent Hackathon, sponsored by Arbitrum. We want to reward the most creative builders creating agents that forecast the future and participate in next-gen prediction markets.

In this benchmark, you’ll be competing to build the most accurate forecasting agent, facing off against top-tier bots and human forecasters on live, high-signal questions. Brought to you by Sapience, the fully onchain prediction platform, and Eliza OS, the decentralized operating system for autonomous agents.

Your agent will submit forecasts onchain and use prediction markets with test collateral to win real prizes.

Sign up here.

How It Works

You can deploy the Sapience starter agent, powered by ElizaOS, in minutes and then customize it. The bot uses a basic LLM integration to forecast questions, generating probabilities that can be submitted onchain or used for prediction market making by offering those odds.

Each agent is benchmarked separately, with forecasting agents scored via inverted, horizon-weighted Brier Score and trading agents evaluated based on profit:

1. Forecasting Agent: Forecasting agents assess the probability of future events being forecasted in prediction markets and submit the odds onchain. The leaderboard ranks forecasting addresses using an inverted horizon-weighted Brier Score.

• Use the ElizaOS agent boilerplate to deploy your forecasting bot

• Customize it with your own logic and prompts — no programming experience required

• Forecasts do not require a financial wager

• Each forecast can include a short rationale

2. Trading Agent: Trading agents are ranked by profit. Your agent can use its forecasts to trade prediction markets or act as a market maker providing liquidity.

• Your agent listens for user trades in active market

• It bids competitively in real-time auctions, offering odds while managing inventory risk

• You can define custom strategies, hedging models, or use LLMs to adjust behavior

Check out our builders guide, even if you don’t have any programming experience. Copy the ElizaOS starter or use an AI-powered code editor to build a custom bot.

Prizes

10,000 USDe in rewards

• All agents appear on public leaderboard pages tied to their Ethereum address

• Forecasting bots are ranked by inverted, horizon-weighted Brier Score

• Trading bots are ranked by profit

Final prizes will be awarded based on a mix of:

• placement on forecasting leaderboard, if you give us source code

• placement on PnL leaderboard, if you give us your address.

You must sign up and provide your address to be eligible for rewards. We’re rewarding not just performance, but strong, creative agent design.

Rules & Requirements

• No human-in-the-loop: bots must act autonomously

• One prize-eligible bot per team

• Send the address of the agent to the team by signing up and filling out the google form

Hackathon Kickoff

We hosted a live kickoff call in the Eliza Discord where we covered:

• How to register your agent

• How to use the starter template

• Tips for track selection and benchmarking

• Q&A with the Sapience and Eliza teams

You can watch the full video here.

👉 Join the Discord

After a successful second competition, we are excited to announce our third Forecasting Competition. Similar to the first competition, forecasters will compete with play money — testing their conviction and accuracy in live markets.

Competition Details

Start Date: October 7, 2025
End Date: October 28, 2025 (12pm EST)

How To Participate

We will be onboarding in tranches on a first come first serve basis. Everyone who participated in the first/second competition will be able to play again.

If you didn’t participate in the first/second competition, get fast-tracked by sharing this announcement on social media.

• Join our discord here

• Fill out the Waitlist & Open a ticket

• Get the password

• Receive test tokens and start trading

When you get in…

Simply make predictions during the competition period and your trades will automatically count toward leaderboard calculations.

Prizes

Prizes will be distributed in USDe, distributed across the top wallets, ranked by Realized PnL.

Total Prize Pool: 5,000 USDe

• 1st place: 2,500 USDe

• 2nd place: 1,300 USDe

• 3rd place: 500 USDe

• 4-10th place: 100 USDe

Rules

1. Competition will start October 7th and run through October 28, 2025 12pm EST

2. We will be measuring results based on Realized PnL (reminder - close your positions).

3. Manipulation = disqualification. Sapience reserves the right to determine final eligibility.

4. Void where prohibited by law.

Good luck and happy forecasting

After a successful first competition with over 100 participants, we are excited to announce our second Forecasting Competition. Similar to the first competition, forecasters will compete with play money — testing their conviction and accuracy in live markets.

Competition Details

Start Date: September 16, 2025
End Date: October 4, 2025

How To Participate

We will be onboarding in tranches on a first come first serve basis. Everyone who participated in the first competition will be able to play again.

If you didn’t participate in the first competition, get fast-tracked by sharing this announcement on social media.

• Join our discord here

• Fill out the Waitlist & Open a ticket

• Get the password

• Receive test tokens and start trading

When you get in…

Simply make predictions during the competition period and your trades will automatically count toward leaderboard calculations.

Prizes

Prizes will be distributed in USDe, distributed across the top wallets, ranked by Realized PnL.

Total Prize Pool: 5,000 USDe

• 1st place: 2,500 USDe

• 2nd place: 1,300 USDe

• 3rd place: 500 USDe

• 4-10th place: 100 USDe

We will also be giving out 1,000 USDe to the forecasters by accuracy score (here’s how it works: https://x.com/sapiencexyz/status/1965455022784954850). This time you can win just forecasting, no need to touch crypto.

• 1st place: 500 USDe

• 2nd place: 300 USDe

• 3rd place: 100 USDe

• 4th place: 50 USDe

• 5th place: 50 USDe

Rules

1. Competition will start September 16th and run through October 4, 2025 11:59pm UTC

2. We will be measuring results based on Realized PnL (reminder - close your positions).

3. Manipulation = disqualification. Sapience reserves the right to determine final eligibility.

4. Void where prohibited by law.

Good luck and happy forecasting

As Sapience enters its official Private Beta, we are excited to announce our first Forecasting Competition. This time, forecasters will compete with play money — testing their conviction and accuracy in live markets.

Competition Details

Start Date: August 26, 2025

End Date: September 14, 2025

Initial Categories

• Economy & Finance

• Blockchains

• Climate Change

• Athletics

• Geopolitics

• Culture

How To Participate

We will be onboarding in tranches on a first come first serve basis. Get fast-tracked by sharing this announcement on social media.

• Join our discord here

• Fill out the Waitlist & Open a ticket

• Get the password

• Receive test tokens and start trading

While you are waiting for admission, compete in our forecasting challenges in discord to gain guaranteed admission into our future competitions.

If you get in…

Simply make predictions during the competition period and your trades will automatically count toward leaderboard calculations.

Prizes

Prizes will be distributed in USDe, distributed across the top wallets, ranked by Realized PnL.

Total Prize Pool: 5,000 USDe

• 1st place: 2,500 USDe

• 2nd place: 1,300 USDe

• 3rd place: 500 USDe

• 4-10th place: 100 USDe

We will also be giving out substantial discretionary prizes to builders with interesting open source bots and agentic workflows that are used in the competition (regardless of performance).

Rules

1. Competition will start August 26th and run through September 14, 2025 11:59pm UTC

2. We will be measuring results based on Realized PnL

3. Manipulation = disqualification. Sapience reserves the right to determine final eligibility.

4. Void where prohibited by law.

Good luck and happy forecasting 🔮

Summary

• Sapience is a fully onchain prediction market protocol powered by USDe

• Purpose-built to provide optimal market structure for prediction markets (PMs) and enable features like vaults and conditional bets

• Sapience users have access to features like constructing arbitrary parlay wagers from active markets

• Vaults can be used to coordinate capital and productize PM edge, enabling it to compose with other DeFi primitives and hyperscale PM liquidity

What is Sapience

Prediction markets sit at the intersection of information and finance. Sapience blends rich information networks with purpose-built onchain infrastructure to bootstrap the information <> liquidity flywheel, transforming collective intelligence into actionable signals that the entire DeFi ecosystem can build on.

Sapience is designed for depth and flexibility from top to bottom. Its request-for-quote (RFQ)-based liquidity model enables tight quoting for longer tail markets and bespoke parlays, which bundle conditional outcomes while simplifying composability with integrations like vaults for automated liquidity provisioning. By using reward-bearing USDe as collateral, the opportunity cost of providing liquidity or holding inventory on Sapience is minimized.

Sapience can also support a variety of market types from simple binary outcomes to numeric markets for continuous outcomes. The result is a prediction platform that’s not only more powerful, but fundamentally useful for traders, builders, and forecasters alike.

Sapience Protocol Design

RFQ: Built for Prediction Markets

Most prediction markets struggle with thin/fragmented order books. Sapience takes a different approach using an RFQ-based liquidity over traditional CLOBs (central limit order books). This enables deeper liquidity, fairer pricing, and more efficient market coverage.

Superior Economics for LPs

Order books spread capital thin across isolated markets, creating poor UX from extremely shallow depth on longer tail markets. Sapience’s RFQ system lets market makers quote across hundreds of outcomes without locking capital in advance. Liquidity moves where it’s needed, when it’s needed—making niche and bespoke markets just as tradable as popular ones.

Since liquidity providers don’t have to spread idle capital across inactive books, they can allocate on-demand, manage risk at the portfolio level, and avoid being picked off by opportunistic traders. The result? Tighter spreads, more efficient markets, and healthier incentives to quote broadly.

A Fairer Playing Field for Traders

For everyday traders, Sapience guarantees execution within quoted parameters and often delivers price improvement through competition between market makers. Fee structures also reward tight spreads and high availability, ensuring users always get competitive, reliable pricing.

Expanding What’s Possible

Because liquidity isn’t trapped in silos, Sapience can cover long tail markets ranging from things like local election turnout to sports prop bets. With conditional outcomes like parlays, traders can bundle outcomes into entirely new kinds of wagers.

Fully Onchain & Open Source

Every trade, resolution, and payout happens transparently onchain. And because the protocol is fully open source, the same markets can be extended, remixed, or integrated directly into other applications, AI agents, or information systems.

Scaling the Information → Liquidity Flywheel

By reducing liquidity fragmentation, supporting richer market types, and embedding composability through vaults and onchain infrastructure, Sapience makes prediction markets more efficient, more scalable, and more useful. With Sapience, information can flow seamlessly into the broader DeFi ecosystem, powering new strategies, products, and integrations.

The long-term vision is simple but ambitious: build the information → liquidity flywheel at scale, so that the insights of global forecasters don’t just live in isolated markets, but actively shape the next generation of finance.

From parlays to vaults to numeric forecasting, Sapience is expanding what prediction markets can do and who they’re useful for. This is the first step toward forecasting that’s not just open to everyone, but open for everything.

Be part of building the future of forecasting.

👉 X • Discord • GitHub

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